So when do India/China catch up?

I've had the opportunity to see Hans Rosling before in conferences, and one can't help but be infected by his sense of enthusiasm at the stories which his powerful interpretation of statistics reveal.

I guess his broadmindedness is partly explained by this stint in India as a student. I didn't know that before.

There is a new field or term emerging called data visualisation. The experts describe 'a sea of data' which is now available globally and accessible anywhere online. The problem is how to interpret it to reveal its hidden narrative. To find the simple story within the data/information overload. Rosling has been doing that since a long time before.

Thanks to the following presentation, 37 years from is now a milestone all of Asia would have its eye on. Striding along the stage with an "environmentally-friendly" presentation pointer, Rosling looks a bit like a modern day Gandhi, just carrying a bigger stick. He understands and sympathises with the emotional touch points of Indian audience and navigates them well. The prediction graphs and statistics are not going to progress on their own, we will have to live each day to that future date and contribute to the trajectory.

In case you don't want to see the whole video, Rosling answers the question at about 14 minutes from the start...

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Jugaad, getting serious now

A term that has always been more a slang than even a formal Hindi word, has suddenly acquired respectibility in the Management world. India's economic profile rising, and it is only proper that practices that seem to work in this nation are formally propounded, expounded and then propagated as the new gospel. Witness Japan's 'Kaizen' business process philosophy export.

I remember jugaad was a quick word that school and college friends would exchange to refer to a 'thing-a-ma-jig' quickly put together to do what we wanted to do.

Now a blog in the eminent Harvard Business Review defines it in the following terms:

... the gutsy art of Jugaad. The Hindi term roughly translates as "overcoming harsh constraints by improvising an effective solution using limited resources". We call it the art of creative improvisation — within a framework of deep knowledge and experience.

Through our research, we have identified four operating principles or innovation rules:

• Thrift not waste. This first rule — which promotes frugality — helps tackle scarcity of all forms of resources.
• Inclusion, not exclusion. This second rule helps entrepreneurial organizations to put inclusiveness into practice — by tightly connecting with, and harnessing, the growing diversity that permeates their communities of customers, employees, and partners.
• Bottom-up participation, not top-down command and control. This third rule drives collaboration. CEOs who tend to act as conductors must learn to facilitate collaborative improvisation just as players in jazz bands do.
• Flexible thinking and action, not linear planning. This fourth rule facilitates flexibility in thinking and action. Jugaad-practicing firms are highly adaptable as they aren't wedded to any single business model and pursue multiple options at any time.

- Jugaad: A New Growth Formula for Corporate America

Management has always sought to capture the Innovation genie in its bottle of standard methodologies. In a field which focuses more on the way you work, rather than what you are working on, the accepted concepts are as liable to change, as clothes in a fashion show. However, there's just something about Jugaad that makes it incongruous to a formal management definition.

The term has become well known in the wider world with the publication of From Jugaad to Systematic Innovation. The book addresses the right question of

Why is it that India is unable to be the source of major industrial innovations on a sustained basis even though it has highly skilled talent and a penchant for jugaad (creative improvisation)?

- From Jugaad to Systematic Innovation, The Challenge for India, by Rishikesha T. Krishnan, Professor of Corporate Strategy, Indian Institute of Management, Bangalore, India

Jugaad is a starting point that happens in under-resourced conditions, but to scale the initial innovation requires other ways and means. I thought the following words expressed it well:

Jugaad is a survival tactic, whereas a hack is an intellectual art form; i.e. Jugaad is the wile of the poor, and hack the pastime of the affluent cerebral. Jugaad is a hack to get around or deal with a lack of or limited resources, and has a class component to it - jugaad are things poor but clever people do to make the most of the resources they have. They do what they need to do, without regard to what is supposed to be possible.

- Jugaad vs. Hack - Wikipedia

Examples

The 'Jugaad' (or Maruta) in Punjab region is also used to refer to a 'poor'-man's assembled vehicle, made by putting together a cheap low-powered water pump with a custom body.

Image courtesy Wikimedia

Now one wouldn't call this a great engineering success, but it is heroic in the attempt by rural-poor to cobble together a ride.

Washing machine ad



More examples of Jugaad can be found at Espirit de Jugaad, Hindustan Times.

Explore further

• Wall Street Journal Review
• Indique Documentaries

Malus & Bonus

It's amusing to discover where words come from. Apparently,

• bonus is Latin for 'good', as opposed to
• malus is Latin for 'bad'

Spotted in business news here:

UBS’s SFr2.7 billion ($2.5 billion) loss for the year activated its malus (Latin for “bad”) system of accordingly reducing an executive’s bonus (“good”). Separately, the $9m in deferred stock awarded to Lloyd Blankfein at Goldman Sachs was taken as a sign of pay restraint on Wall Street. Jamie Dimon, of JPMorgan Chase, received $17m.

The Economist, 10 February 2010

No wonder, you'll feel 'good' if you get a bonus.

7x7 Session One, Seven Foundations – Our Reality 2008, Our Future 2028.

Tuesday, 22 July 2008

Intrigued by anything that claims to be inspired by TED talks, I bought the season tickets to see these 5 sessions. The short 7 minute presentations keep the audience engaged and the talks focussed. Presentation from Professor Hans Rosling playing on a LCD screen outside, a duet song by Dolly Parton and Kenny Rodgers - "Islands in the Stream" playing in the big screen inside, I took my seat.

The session was opened by Brian Sweeny, Chairman of Sweeny Vesty, a wellington based international consultancy. He started the 7x7 series along with Jan Bieringa as an ideas forum. Expressing the belief that every New Zealander needs a global edge to their work and dreams, his firm has been involved in work across 80 cities in 40 countries, with "many of the work delivered from Wellington". He advocated that New Zealand companies need to push themselves out into the world to become great. Noting the current tough economic scenario, he pointed to Toyota's market share which has been climbing even during downturns. Their lesson - the 5 Paradox Foundations - Move slowly and take big leaps, Grow steadily and remain paranoid, Be frugal and splurge, Be simple and complex, Set impossible goals and surprass them. Another roadmap referred to was 'FREDA' - Focus, Reinvention, Execution, Distribution, and Accountability. Brian hoped that thoughts and visions generated at this gathering would feed into the nation's political direction. You can also check nzedge.com

Rod Oram, international financial journalist, the chair and moderator at these series also had his 7 minute session. With plenty of humour and wit, he would carry the seminar series well. Going on the theme of 7, he talked about the 7 synergies. First, Reality - need to have a realistic self assessment of our capabilities and goals for succeeding. Opportunity - global economy and technological empowerment enabling small companies from New Zealand to have manage international concerns, leveraging our natural resources - forestry, tourism as well as filmmaking. Creativity - our size allows us to pioneer new business models, skills and relationships. Sustainability - Auckland may have 2.2 million people in 50 years, Pakehas may become a minority, we will need culture, community and business to work hand-in-hand. Commonality - of purpose, that we acknowledge each other's aspirations, but are able to find common ground for action. Leadership - New Zealanders prefer strong leadership, but we need distributed leadership in small groups. Finally, Belief - New Zealand can be a role model, bolder, strong, more certain of world contribution, and more successful. New Zealand can be the distinct attractive alternative. Only if we believe can we achieve.

He was follwed by Dr. David Skilling, CEO of the think-tank New Zealand Institute, who presented an economic analysis of current New Zealand and projected to 2030. Among the several graphs and numbers presented the overall theme was 'absence of change'. Among the OECD countries per-capita-income, we are currently 22 and are at the current rate are to remain so in 2030. However in that time the gap with Australia will increase from 30% to 60%, which can have a major impact. A Wellington Westpac stadium full of people leave for Australia every year, indefinitely or long term basis. However either too negative or positive attitudes don't help much. To make a real difference, the aspirations need to be better defined. There is a need to engage effectively with global economy or New Zealand is going to get run over.

In response came Brian Easton, and independent scholar and columnist. His presentation theme being markedly opposite - 'does material affluence boost well-being?'. Disagreeing with the theory that more products means one is better off, he also questioned the blind faith public has in economists. He gave examples of lack of correlation between well-being and material consumption - rich countries per capita income not relating to their happiness, in U.S. better to be married that have 100,000 dollars extra income. His summary - "don't worry about the economists, be happy".

Michael Field, columnist, author, expert in Pacific affairs, discussed that on his travel to Mumbai he encountered Indian civil servants who dismissed New Zealand due to its low population. Point was that New Zealand sees its much smaller Pacific neighbours in a similar vein. He proposed that perhaps there should be a union that takes away the 'small failing micro-states'. Information Technology and relaxed borders would help sustainability. Michael mentioned Tokelau and despite New Zealand attempts to have them go their own way, they prefer to be part of New Zealand. The arrival of "broadband internet, Bebo, and Sky TV" had "muted their drive of decolonization". He suggested that New Zealand should lead the way in establishing and facilitating a better Pacific union.

Professor Jacqueline Rowarth of Massey University came to talk about science research & development in New Zealand. For its size New Zealand has a good amount of research going on. Globally the demand for food is set to grow, but New Zealand does not have more land to farm. Thus farming techniques will need to become more sophisticated. However less graduates are electing to go into Agricultural Sciences and are moving to fields such as creative arts, which Jacqueline coined "the Peter Jackson effect". 26% of tertiary educated go overseas, many don't see a future in New Zealand. The science system in New Zealand needs reform, to be led more by creative 'investigator-led' research rather than 'output-driven research'. A 'Fast Forward' fund of $700 million has been created, under minister Jim Anderton and colleagues, for Science, Farms & Food. This is being matched by industry. It should help put New Zealand back in high-level research. Concluding, "If we liberate the thinkers, then we will have the recruitment that we need, and we'll have better science."

Dr. Morgan Williams, Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment started by talking about astronauts' epiphany. The inexpressible experience of externally observing and realizing the world as an isolated and closed system. He described humanity putting enormous pressure on the resources of the globe including oceans, soil, water. There are eco-system services which we depend on and take for granted, such as bees for pollinating. One solution mentioned was bio-mimcry - taking learning from nature and applying them in the creation of our systems. Such as vineyards in North Canterbury planting flowers around to lift the pollination rates. The education system has to catch up with learning for sustainability.

Savouring an enormous amount of information in a short time span is exhilarating, but takes time to digest. The rest of the seminar series looks promises increase the tempo.

Who moved my chapati?

A furore has been raised in India, due to the recent comments emerging from the US administration:

In India, in many places, it's considered bad etiquette to count what the another person is eating, sometimes it bad to count your own intake as well. So such an accusatory finger pointed at the India food plate is bound to raise strong responses.

Perhaps a good factual counter-response comes in an article that my father sent me.

Total foodgrain consumption — wheat, rice, and all coarse grains like rye, barley etc — by each person in the US is over five times that of an Indian, according to figures released by the US Department of Agriculture for 2007.

Each Indian gets to eat about 178 kg of grain in a year, while a US citizen consumes 1,046 kg.

In per capita terms, US grain consumption is twice that of the European Union and thrice that of China. Grain consumption includes flour and by conversion to alcohol.

In fact, per capita grain consumption has increased in the US — so actually the Americans are eating more. In 2003, US per capita grain consumption was 946 kg per year which increased to 1046 kg last year.

By way of comparison, India’s per capita grain consumption has remained static over the same period. It’s not just grains. Milk consumption, in fluid form, is 78 kg per year for each person in the US, compared to 36 kg in India and 11 kg in China.

Another important point has been raised by one of India's eminent economists, M. S. Ahluwalia:

I don't agree that there is a global food crisis because of India and China. There is an increase in food production too in both the countries."

"The increase in production and use of biofuels might be the cause why cultivable area is limited.

This small blame-game most likely comes out of a larger pattern taking place. Due to the equalization of purchasing powers of the economies worldwide, the perception in the west will increasingly be that their standard of living is falling as it is rising in the developing countries. When balance is found, it will probably be at a disadvantage for the developed world and advantage for the developing world.

The UN and world financial bodies have pointed to an oncoming food crisis. Food riots in vulnerable countries like Haiti, Yemen and even Egypt may become more widespread. The sudden inflation is linked more to the rise in energy prices such as oil than anything else. Countries with self-sufficient food production will try to guard their stock, but higher energy prices will contribute to inflation nevertheless.

Time to tighten your grocery budget even further.

Zero Value Currency

A close relative passed on to me this very interesting development.



It's described here in the following context

The movement called ‘Freedom From Corruption’, launched in all 30 districts of Tamil Nadu early this month [August 2007], will make its Mumbai debut in the city’s schools and colleges. “It is an effort to empower every citizen to fight corruption,” said M Vijayanand, the president of Fifth Pillar India.

It remains to be seen if this catches on.

Out of 163 countries where the 1 is least percieved corrupt and 163 is the most percieved corrupt - Finland, Iceland and New Zealand share spot number 1, followed by Denmark (4), Singapore (5), Sweden (6), Switzerland (7), Norway (8), Australia (9), and Netherlands (9). The countries percieved to be most corrupt are Haiti (163), Myanmar (160), Iraq (160), Guinea (160), Sudan (159), Congo (156), Chad (156), and Bangladesh (156). India is ranked midway at 70, with a confidence-scale score of 3.3 out of 10, which is actually not bad.

Graduate Tax

A panel in the Indian government has recommended that the Government of India tax graduates of India's institutions that enjoy any education subsidy from the government. It's called the 'graduate tax' or 'exit tax'.

from the Times of India

Parliament's standing committee on HRD ministry has recommended taxing students who take up overseas jobs after graduating from premier higher education institutions and their employers as well.

Called 'graduate tax' and 'exit tax', the standing committee has argued that such a system is in vogue in many countries.

However, it did not mention the name of these countries. In its report, the committee said graduate tax was levied on those who used the services of trained manpower.

"An employer is required to pay an annual tax to the government for each graduate recruited by it," the committee said, while admitting that the scheme had a major drawback as it might lead to substitution of university graduates with less educated manpower.

"Nevertheless, the committee feels that taxing employers based on the type and number of manpower they use has a good rationale and should be considered seriously for implementation," the report said.

In its reply, HRD ministry said the committee's suggestions would be conveyed to the finance ministry and the University Grants Commission.

The parliamentary panel said the imposition of exit tax on students taking up foreign jobs after obtaining their degrees, particularly from premier institutions which are run with massive state subsidies, was suggested by some experts.

They argued that the expenditure on such students did not provide any returns to the country.

On the face of it, it is very logical. The Goverment funds these students to study, so when the time comes, it wants the economic value of the generated brain power back.

Let's see what the implications of such an enforcement would be.

1. First and the most basic, is the reduction in freedom for the students. This would cause the percieved value of such education to drop.
2. Second is that it is usually the best ranked institutions and universities of India that recieve the most subsidy. It is a fact that most of the affiliated graduates of these places look for overseas opportunities as soon as possible, though it is said that the trend is declining. The enforcement would precipitate a crucial choice in what is more important for bright students - getting overseas experience or getting into the highest ranked universities (and facing unemployability). My own experience is that after you have graduated and are in the working world, it doesn't really matter as much where you graduated from, as what your abilities are. So, my bets are - the highly ranked, but subsidised institutions, will have more trouble attracting the best candidates and their rankings may suffer.
3. The "graduate tax" specifies the employer as the one who pays the taxes. I don't see this happening except in some exceptional case, where the prospective employee is a genius of some kind. This renders the graduates unemployable abroad. This will add to the 'coolie' economy, where instead of inviting graduates to work abroad in an equivalent environment and gain international experience, multinational companies will open local offices in India and keep the graduates there on lower salaries, yet still extract their pound of Indian brain power.
4. As the Indian diaspora worldwide will attest - the latest typical Indian emigrant to other countries is very competent and professional. This has helped change the perception of India. The first generation immigrants are also very closely tied to families back home and many send back financial assistance. The more prosperous are also donating to charities, scholarships and frameworks to enhance the capabilities of the people back home. The Indian businessmen abroad are investing back in India as they see it as a great growth opportunity. All this will suffer. The second generaton of immigrants tend to be more distant and don't have that much of a connection to India.

In the end, the loss may be far greater than the gain.

A better option for the Government, to keep it's investment in the institutions, is to take off the subsidies altogether. I can see the traditionalists screaming at me now, asking how is the poor guy to be educated then? How will they pay the resulting enormous education fees? The answer lies in the Government giving out individual loans to economically challenged students. A condition can be set that if the graduate accepts to take this loan and then proceeds to go abroad, then they have to pay 'graduate tax'. As long as they remain in the country they don't need to repay the loan and won't be taxed. This would continue to help the poor students and the well-off won't use up the Government's resources.

Yes, this means rich students will leave India and the poor will stay. This is already true - the airline ticket and foreign visa applications are not cheap. But no matter how you slice it, this 'graduate tax' measure is discriminative.

Prof. Hans Rosling shows us the real world

I had the priviledge to meet Sweden's Professor Hans Rosling at GOVIS 2007: Innovation in ICT conference held here in Wellington. I attended his workshop Unveiling the beauty of statistics with animations. Prof. Rosling was described in the GOVIS conference pages as

Hans Rosling has spent two decades studying the links between poverty, agriculture and disease in remote rural areas across Africa. He-founded Gapminder together with his son and daughter-in-law to promote better use and understanding of statistics by converting international statistics into moving, interactive and enjoyable graphics.

In the workshop he further informed us that his software Trendalyzer has been acquired by Google (yes, the big monster that's eating up everything) and they will help further develop it. Its features will probably be included into Google Analytics as well. This will give the software a platform and resources for more development.

Prof. Rosling already has a very busy schedule, being invited to speak in front of most major international forums, including UN bodies, OECD etc. I think every world government and media outlet should hear him. In most conference sessions I like to take lots of notes in case I forget something, but at the GOVIS session I had to put my pen down as I knew I wouldn't forget this one. Not only was the presentation enormously informative, it was also very entertaining. The famous videos below are from the TED conferences.

February 2006 - Hans Rosling: Debunking third-world myths with the best stats you've ever seen




March 2007 - Hans Rosling: New insights on poverty and life around the world



Prof. Hans Rosling at GOVIS 2007 in Wellington

Property Bubble in Kiwi-land

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"Just days after Reserve Bank governor Alan Bollard's unexpected intervention in the currency markets, the bank has taken the unusual step of offering detailed suggestions on how government policy could dampen the overheated property market.

In a submission to the commerce select committee's housing affordability inquiry, the bank said government might want to consider introducing a capital gains tax on rental properties, and better controls on immigration."

- Sunday Star Times, 17 June 2007